The Chinese Basketball Association playoffs got underway Wednesday, and to discuss the teams and break down the matchups, we’ve invited the foremost English-speaking CBA expert, Jon Pastuszek, who runs the excellent NiuBBall. Our questions to him are in bold.

(1) Guangdong vs. (8) Zhejiang

Are the Guangdong Southern Tigers the Miami Heat of the CBA this year, and is it really healthy for the league that they’re going to win it all again?

In Beijing, absolutely. Elsewhere, I think the whole “sweep the leg” episode from last year caused a lot of people to turn on them. I don’t know if they’re the Miami Heat, but they’re certainly a team that is not liked.

Is it a bad thing if they win again? I’m not so sure. I’m of the opinion that the Tigers’ window is closing. Their longtime core of Wang Shipeng and Zhu Fangyu are advancing in age and they currently lack the young players who could step into their shoes. That next generation of players, Zhou Peng, Su Wei and Li Xiaoyu, crapped the bed last year against Beijing and don’t look like a group who can carry the torch with confidence.

What happens if they don’t win? Yi probably won’t be back next season. Their mid-season coaching hire, Jonas Kazlauskas, also probably won’t be back next season. Their vets will be a year older. They’ll still be towards the top of the league, but they’re no longer the juggernaut they once were. A lot of that has to do with the overall quality of the league improving every year, but the roster isn’t what it used to be. We’ll see if they have anything up their sleeves this off-season, but Guangdong’s dynasty, like they all eventually do at some point, might be coming to a close.

Assess Yi Jianlian. How is this dude not in the NBA?

For Team China and in the CBA, dude is a beast because in both of those settings it’s rare for a seven-footer to be as skilled and as athletic as Yi. But in the NBA, what exactly is he? It’s a question that no team has been able to answer yet. He doesn’t really have an NBA skill. He doesn’t rebound. He’s a non-passer, although he’s improved a bit in that respect with all of the double teams he’s seen while playing for China the last two summers. Defensively, he’s a wreck. He has never shown the desire to want to play inside, which means he’s floating around free-throw line and out. But he’s not a good enough shooter from the three-point line to be an effective stretch big man.

He gets a lot of criticism for not being tough enough, and that’s something I believed as well for a few years. But after seeing him up close with the national team these past three summers, I’m not buying that at all anymore. And if you talk to coaches who have coached him with the national team setup, they’ll tell you the same thing. Not only has he stepped up and taken the challenge of being The Guy for the post-Yao Chinese, he’s excelled in that role. Some of his best games have come against top competition (Spain in the Olympics, Jordan in the Asia Championship finals), and he has been among the top big men both at the 2010 World Championship and last summer at the Olympics before he got hurt. So I just think people need to think a little bit more on Yi instead of just throwing out the “soft” label and painting the whole thing over.

All that being said though, he’s just not good enough for the NBA. if he decides to play in Europe next season for a Real Madrid or Barcelona, or any other top club team, he’d be fantastic. But it just goes to show you how good the players are in the NBA.

How does a team with Quincy Douby, he of the 75-point performance, not be better than 8th place?

A team who hired a head coach who wants to play up-and-down for some reason signed Eddy Curry. Your guess is as good as mine as to why.

(4) Xinjiang vs. (5) Liaoning

This figures to be the most — only? — competitive series of the first round. Break it down for us.

They’re two similarly constructed teams. Both have very good Chinese players (Liaoning’s are second only to Guangdong), both team’s foreigners don’t totally dominate the ball and they’re both based in cold-as-hell cities with bad air (Urumqi and Benxi). The fact that Xinjiang was able to grab a 4th seed is noteworthy because they went through a prolonged stretch early in the season where both of their foreigners were on the shelf with injuries. They’ve been killing teams recently, with former NBA’er Von Wafer playing especially well. James Singleton, who missed a big chunk of the season with a knee injury, is finally back and looked like somewhat like his old self in their last regular season game.

But whereas Xinjiang is just finally getting healthy, Liaoning is limping into the postseason with two key injuries to Chinese players. But they’re still capable of giving us a good series: Guo Ailun, who was on the National Team last summer, has been very effective at the point guard, while Josh Akognon can get blazing hot very quickly. Solomon Jones isn’t much of an offensive threat, but his length and athleticism makes him one of the few rim protectors in the league and gives them a very versatile defensive option inside.

Liaoning has to win one of the next two games at Xinjiang… otherwise, it potentially sets up a do-or-die Game 5 in Urumqi. And with no foreign referees until the semifinals, let’s put it this way: Liaoning is guaranteed to lose that one.

(3) Beijing vs. (6) Guangsha

Didn’t these teams play in last year’s playoffs?

Yep. And it’ll end exactly like last year’s: Quickly.

Beijing started the year hot, beating Guangdong and Xinjiang on the road, but went on a serious funk, got swept by Tianjin (the second worst team in the league), lost at Qingdao (the worst team in the league), lost at Bayi (always a bummer)… what is up with this Jekyll and Hyde of a team?

I think it’s a team that’s been pacing itself. After all, their best player is a 36-year-old point guard, Stephon Marbury, who coincidentally happens to be the best and most unstoppable player in the league. Ensuring health and fresh legs are more important than anything else. They know that when it counts in the playoffs, they’re capable of turning it on. And in big regular season games (Guangdong, Xinjiang, Shandong) they’ve come away with results. So it’s nothing to be overly concerned with in my opinion.

Odds that the Ducks repeat as champ?

I think they’re pretty good. It’s going to be a slugfest when they play against Shandong and their three imports in the semifinals. But up until this point (save for Tianjin, unbelievably), nobody has figured out how to to keep Marbury out of the paint. It’s not like you can really gameplan for Beijing — they run very simple sets and their go-to play is Marbury spread pick-and-roll. So until somebody proves to me that they can stop that, I have to stick with the Ducks. Plus, they’re playing the entirety of the playoffs at the 18,000 seat NBA-quality Wukesong Arena. Last season during the Finals against Guangdong, every game was sold out and electric. It’s an advantage no other team will even come close to enjoying and I think it’s something that will prove to be a difference-maker as they advance into later rounds.

(2) Shandong vs. (7) Dongguan

I have absolutely nothing to say about this series. Perhaps you do?

All the pieces have come together in Shandong this season. Of course, it’s easier for that to happen when you’re playing with three imports as opposed to just two, like most other teams. But this is a heck of a team; their foreigners (Pooh Jeter, Zaid Abbas and Jackson Vroman) don’t dominate the ball and are all extremely unselfish, they have multiple Chinese players capable of making meaningful contributions and they consistently defend.

DongGuan meanwhile, has been picking up the pieces all season long. Lester Hudson, who was second in the league in scoring last year, went down mid-season with a broken hand. They’ve dealt with other injuries to their Chinese. And they’ve been dealing with the reality of having to balance the playing time of a very promising yet very raw potential NBA player, Li Muhao, while still winning games. Hudson is back with the team for the playoffs now, but in yet another stroke of horrible luck, their other American, CBA All-Star Marcus Haislip, sprained his ankle last weekend and is playing with a limp. These guys are impeccably coached by Brian Goorjian, and it’s a tribute to him and his staff that they even made it here, but it’s going to be a short series.

Finally — your first round, semifinals, and finals predictions. Go!

First round: Guangdong, Shandong, Beijing and Xinjiang.

Semi-Finals: Guangdong and Beijing

Finals: Beijing

Jon Pastuszek writes about all things Chinese hoops at NiuBBall.com. His work includes a New York Times piece about Quincy Douby and the Xinjiang Flying Tigers’ 2011 playoff run, and he’s previously written about Stephen Marbury for this site.

By Jon Pastuszek

It’s November 2010, and Stephon Marbury has locked himself inside a hotel room in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, sad, hurt and uncertain over his future in China.

Eight months earlier, after basically being told he wasn’t welcome anymore in the NBA, he had come to play for the Shanxi Brave Dragons of the Chinese Basketball Association. American media cackled at this desperate move from a desperate man, and eagerly awaited what they felt sure would be a quick return Stateside.

In China, fans saved their laughter for the team Marbury was joining. Known equally for their dirty coal-crusted home city, an obsessive-compulsive owner, Wang Xingjiang, known as Boss Wang, and a huge pile of losses over the years, the Brave Dragons were their own punch line.

But it became clear from the beginning that Marbury didn’t consider any of this a joke. Arriving in January with a one-year contract and an ambitious business plan to sell his line of Starbury sneakers, Marbury quickly ingratiated himself to fans both on and off the court. He willingly engaged the media. He patiently signed autographs. He took pictures with locals. He learned a few basic Mandarin words. He tried Chinese food. He was, genuinely, it seemed, happy.

This was in stark contrast to Shanxi’s previous expensive import, Bonzi Wells, who hated it so much in China – the food, the long travel, the cold gyms, the endless practices, the crowds, everything – that he went back to the US during the CBA’s annual Spring Festival break and never came back. He lasted 14 games. After 15 games, Marbury’s CBA career seemed to be just taking off, culminating with the MVP award in the CBA All-Star Game. Shanxi was ready to sign Marbury to a multiyear extension. In a little under half a season, he had turned the Brave Dragons into the CBA’s hottest ticket while transforming himself into the foreign darling of China.

But maybe most important of all, he’d found peace. With the Chinese either not knowing or not caring about his past, here was a rare opportunity to reinvent himself, a clean slate. He used that opportunity to show love – “love is love,” as he was fond of tweeting.

Which is why, back in the hotel just two weeks before the start of the new season, it hurts so much to realize that Shanxi no longer has love for him: Boss Wang has just informed him he isn’t wanted.

~

It’s December 2011, and Stephon Marbury and the Beijing Ducks have just won their 13th straight game to open the season, the best start in team history.

“Our goal is to win a championship,” he says.

Over a year earlier, after his separation with Shanxi, he had come to Beijing to offer his services. Boss Wang and his newly appointed general manager, Zhang Aijun, became the latest to laugh at him, adding to his desire to prove his doubters wrong.

The reasons for Marbury’s separation from Shanxi are unclear. Shanxi claimed he showed up to camp out of shape and with too many demands; Marbury says he merely wanted health insurance for his family and that he was committed to leading the team toward the playoffs. Whatever the case, Wang and Zhang proposed that Marbury stay on as an assistant, with the possibility that he would play if the team made the playoffs. Though they never said it publicly, they likely felt that he wasn’t good enough to lead their team.

Feeling cheated, Marbury declined, and after holing himself up in his room to recover and plan his next move, he boarded a plane to China’s capital. For Marbury, the timing of Shanxi’s decision could not have been worse — with the season starting soon, most teams had signed their allotment of foreign players, making his options severely limited.

One team that still had a spot was the Beijing Ducks. Marbury literally showed up at their front door. If they wanted him, he was theirs.

It turned out, though, they already had a guy lined up, another former NBA All-Star, Steve Francis. And though the deal hadn’t been finalized and Francis wasn’t in China, they said they were going through with it.

Known as Fu Lao Da (roughly translated as Don Francis, in reference to the mafia) by every Chinese who watched the Houston Rockets during Yao Ming’s first two years there, Francis was at the time one of China’s favorite NBA players. Idolized for his high-flying dunks just as much for his generosity toward Yao during his rookie season, the announcement of Francis’ contract with the Ducks was met with pinch-me-is-this-really-happening frenzy.

But the truth was, as informed fans and journalists knew, Francis was coming off major knee surgery and hadn’t played professional basketball in almost two years. And while television reports were announcing his lucrative two-year deal with clips of the old Stevie Franchise throwing down sick dunks, an old, skinny and out-of-shape retired basketball player got on a flight from the States bound for Beijing.

What followed was the most disastrous stint for a foreigner in Chinese basketball history. His 13-day, four-game stay included a 17-second debut with an ice pack around his ankle, a middle-finger, an outright refusal to practice and a grand total of 14 minutes played.

Francis would serve as the most extreme case in a season that was dominated by similarly failed jumps to China by former NBA players. Undoubtedly influenced by Marbury’s success in Shanxi, Javaris Crittenton, Ricky Davis, Mike James and Rafer Alston all at one time or another came to China with a goal to cash in on China’s big basketball market, and all left within a month.

Marbury ended up on a newly established team in Foshan, Guangdong province. His team, the Dralions – a cross between a Dragon and a Lion – had just moved from Shaanxi (not to be confused with Shanxi), where the owner had essentially gone bankrupt. As is the case with most bankrupt teams forced to relocate, Foshan stunk. At the core of the problem, their Chinese players were all very young, and they weren’t very good.

Meanwhile, not an hour away from Foshan were the Guangdong Southern Tigers, winners of seven CBA championships, and the DongGuan Leopards, an up-and-coming team with several young players who will one day play for the Chinese national team. Once the most popular player in all of China, Marbury was now barely the most popular player in his province. No matter how charming and nice he remained, people were unable to get excited about watching a losing basketball team. No longer the newest sensation in China, some in the media wondered if Marbury Mania had run its course.

He paid no mind to it, though. While players were running to US-bound planes at full sprint, Marbury remained happy with his life in China and maintained that his future rested here. As the losses mounted, he tried to stay positive by saying his goal was to develop the team’s young players.

Foshan ended the season by winning four of its last five. Still, the Dralions were 11-21, the fourth-worst team in the league. And the critics were clapping: two years in China, no playoff appearances. Some things never change, they thought.

Which is why, back in the Beijing locker room as he changes to leave the arena after starting the year 13-0, Stephon Marbury is feeling so good.

~

It’s August 2011 and Marbury has just signed a contract with the Beijing Ducks, the same team that rejected him for Steve Francis a year ago.

Reports of a decrease in Starbury’s popularity were premature, at least from a front-office standpoint. Once it became obvious that Marbury wasn’t headed back to Foshan, several teams expressed interest, including the Guangdong Southern Tigers, fresh off yet another CBA title.

In the end, he chose Beijing. As one of China’s biggest markets, it meant it would be good for his shoes. It was also, as he finds out after attending a Beijing Guo’an soccer match at Workers Stadium in the summer, a city passionate about sports. The fact that it’s a bustling metropolis rife with foreign restaurants and supermarkets doesn’t hurt, either.

“It’s exciting,” he said. “It’s my new life in China.”

~

It’s March 18, 2012, and Stephon Marbury is shredding the Shanxi Brave Dragons for 30 points and eight assists as the Beijing Ducks punch their first-ever ticket to the CBA Finals.

A week earlier, after torching his old squad for 53 points in Game 2 and 52 points in Game 3 to lead Beijing to a 2-1 series lead in the best-of-five series, Marbury was accused of striking a fan after a tense Game 4 in Taiyuan that Beijing lost. (In all likelihood, the fan made it up, as no witnesses corroborated the story and no video evidence was produced. Marbury received no punishment from the league.) Once again, American media laughed: it took more than two years, but the real Steph has come out for everyone to see. They laughed at Marbury, they laughed at his shoes, they laughed at his goal of winning a CBA championship.

But all they really did was give him more motivation.

Game 5 was delayed four days because CBA officials wanted tempers to simmer, but the game itself, in front of a packed Shougang Gymnasium on national TV, produced little by way of drama. The Ducks cruised to a 110-98 victory. Afterwards, Marbury ducked into a bathroom and sobbed with joy.

This moment, by all accounts, was portrayed as the denouement of the 2012 Stephon Marbury saga. Because the team that waited in the finals was the four-time defending champs, the Guangdong Southern Tigers, with their NBA-level imports in Aaron Brooks and James Singleton and a roster of full of National Team players. Surely the Ducks wouldn’t be able to write a happier ending than the one they just got.

Right?

It’s March 30, 2012, and Stephon Marbury is a champion. Nobody is laughing anymore.

In five games, Beijing upends Guangdong in the biggest upset in CBA history. And then, with his teammates and the coaching staff still in the locker room, Marbury emerges by himself and stands at midcourt while 18,000 – the largest crowd to ever attend a CBA game – chant his name.

Over the last season, Year Three, Marbury found his home as a Beijing ye menr – a true Beijinger, in the eyes of the people who live here. He’s not just a basketball player, he’s a fixture of the city, a daily participant in its day-to-day. He continues to go to Guo’an soccer games, he chats with fans on Sina Weibo (Chinese Twitter), he writes a weekly China Daily column and occasionally rides the subway to practice. People feel that it’s genuine.

In his own locker room, he’s Ma Dao, the undisputed leader of the team. He is lauded as an on-court coach by head coach Min Lulei. His Chinese teammates point to his positive attitude and work ethic as major reasons this year’s team came together so quickly, going from an eighth seed in last year’s playoffs to champions. Two rookies, Zhu Yanxi and Zhai Xiaochuan, both of whom played critical roles in Beijing’s success this year, were selected to the National Team training camp roster this summer; they credit Marbury with helping them achieve that.

In the CBA, he’s a spokesperson for the league and an advisor for newly arrived foreign players. He’s not just an advocate of basketball, he’s an advocate of Chinese basketball. He says he wants to help the sport, the league and its players grow. He says he wants to play in Beijing for four more years. He says he wants to stay in China until he’s old. He says he wants to coach the National Team one day.

That will come later, maybe. The only thing that matters now, though, are the fans showering him with love. He thumbs the front of his “Champions” t-shirt while fans chant, Zongguanjun – “We are champions!”

Shortly after lifting the trophy, he tweets, “I wanna thank all of the reporters who said I couldn’t play basketball anymore. I took your negative energy and turned it in positive energy.”

Love is Love. So is proving everybody wrong.

Jon Pastuszek writes about all things Chinese hoops at NiuBBall.com. His work includes a New York Times piece about Quincy Douby and the Xinjiang Flying Tigers’ 2011 playoff run.

Via China Daily

By Jon Pastuszek

We have a saying over at NiuBBall: There is no parity in the Chinese Basketball Association.

Understand: Since the CBA went to a best-of-five format for the first round and semis in 2005, never has there been a do-or-die Game 5. Since the CBA went to a best-of-seven format for the finals a year later, only two teams – Bayi and Guangdong, both seeded 2nd, in 2007 and 2011 – have upset the regular season’s best team. Only one series has gone past Game 5 – last year, when Guangdong beat Xinjiang in six. In that same span, only three lower seeds have upset the higher seed.

The CBA is entertaining for many reasons, but the playoffs is definitely not one of them.

Its predictability has affected even the postseason schedule makers: best-of-five first round series take the 1-2-1-1 format in which the lower-seeded team hosts Game 1, based off the reasoning that attendance will be higher if a fan base’s optimism hasn’t been completely dashed by their team being in a 0-2 hole.

This year, though, we’re guaranteed at least this bit of variety: for the first time in three years, there will be at least one new team in the finals. That’s because Xinjiang and Guangdong are on the same side of the bracket, which means if everything goes to plan, they’ll play each other in the semis.

Expect it – and every other series – to go according to plan. (Note: all start times subject to change.)

#1 Guangdong Hongyuan Southern Tigers (25-7) vs. #8 Fujian SBS Sturgeons (17-15)

Regular Season Series:
(12/21) Guangdong – 85 @ Fujian – 90
(2/8) Fujian – 116 @ Guangdong – 126

Playoff Series Schedule:
Wednesday, 7:30 pm, @ Fujian
Friday (2/24), 7:30 pm, @ Guangdong
Sunday (2/26), 7:30 pm, @ Guangdong
(2/29), 7:30 pm, @ Fujian (if necessary)
(3/2), 7:30 pm, @ Guangdong (if necessary)

The question isn’t whether the Southern Tigers will win their fourth straight championship and eight of the last nine – feel free to pause to let that sink in – but how many games they’ll need to do it and who they’ll beat. So there’s absolutely no chance of a first-round upset…

Yet – a big yet, but yet – if there was a team with a fighting chance of achieving the most monumental upset in Chinese basketball history, Fujian would be the pick. Able to trot out three foreigners to Guangdong’s two because of its abysmal record last season (a quirk in the CBA rules), Fujian can compensate for its inferior Chinese roster better than any other team in the playoffs. And those foreigners are good. In his first season in China, Will McDonald has become the hands-down best center in the league, blending the inside-outside game he developed in Spain with solid work on the boards. The tireless Zaid Abbas, the team’s Asian import, led the league in rebounding (14.7 per game) and minutes (42.7). Anthony Roberson rounds out the foreign lineup doing what he’s always done: shooting the air out of the ball, which is good if he’s hot (bad if he’s not).

Aaron Brooks

But the best thing about Fujian’s imports? They actually match up pretty well with their opponents. Guangdong’s center combo of Su Wei and Wang Zheng have no offensive skills to speak of and don’t move well on either end of the floor, which means they’ll likely struggle to guard McDonald, who can stretch the floor. The more athletic yet smaller Dong Hanlin might have to shoulder that burden. The ever-active Abbas will make James Singleton work very hard to get his. And Roberson, who can and sometimes does go completely off, will probably have to garner at least some defensive attention from Aaron Brooks, who will resume his NBA career as soon as the season ends.

As CBA watchers know though, talking about foreigner matchups is usually a moot point when it comes to Guangdong, a team that relies on its Chinese guys to get it done: Wang Shipeng, Zhu Fangyu, Zhou Peng, Chen Jianghua, Dong Hanlin and, yes, even the aforementioned duo of Su Wei and Wang Zheng make up seven of the top eight Chinese players in the series. So long as Brooks doesn’t get caught up trying to match Roberson’s shot total and does what he does best in this league — work out of the pick and roll and get into the lane at will — Guangdong will be more than fine.

Prediction: Guangdong in 4

#2 Beijing Shougang Ducks (21-11) vs. #7 Zhejiang Guangsha Lions (18-14)

Regular Season Series:
(12/28) Guangsha – 118 @ Beijing – 112
(2/15) Beijing – 94 @ Guangsha – 114

Playoff Series Schedule:
Wednesday, 7:30 pm, @ Guangsha
Friday (2/24), 7:30 pm, @ Beijing
Sunday (2/26), 7:30 pm, @ Beijing
(2/29), 7:30 pm, @ Guangsha (if necessary)
(3/2), 7:30 pm, @ Beijing (if necessary)

While Wilson Chandler is back in the U.S. getting a haircut for the first time since August and negotiating a $40 million-plus contract, the team he used to play for, the Guangsha Lions, is trying to figure out how in Mao’s name to replace the singularly most destructive foreigner in the CBA (when he wanted to be) not named Stephanie Smith.

They can contemplate all they want, but the reality is that they won’t find that replacement. Even though they swept the season series vs. Beijing, they’re about to get paid back in full. It’s a sad thought when you consider that the Lions were in third place in mid-December and looking like somewhat serious title contenders.

If you ignore, for a moment, the Chandler-exodus storyline, Guangsha’s season was interesting in its own rights – and also interesting because it mirrored Beijing’s. The Ducks sprinted out to a 13-0 start, then lost 11 out of the next 19. Yet because of the instability in the teams under them, Beijing was able to hang on to second place.

@StarburyMarbury

A lot of that incredible start was due to Stephon Marbury, who has played his butt off every night in a city he now considershome on a team with players far more talented than his teammates in Shanxi and Foshan. He was always meant for the big city, and in a place where he’s comfortable, his rededication to basketball is evident.

Two of his teammates, Zhu Yanxi and Zhai Xiaochuan, are in their first years in the CBA, and both have thrived playing with Marbury. Zhu, a rookie sensation who was picked up from China’s second-tier National Basketball League, is the most Euro China big man you’ll see in this country. That may be an insult in the NBA, but in China it’s a huge compliment. Big under the boards and accurate from deep, Zhu amounts to the Chinese poor man’s version of Ersan Ilyasova. Zhai has no far-fetched NBA comparison, but he is a young, long and bouncy effort guy who does nothing particularly bad.

The Ducks’ longer-term success, i.e. a trip to the finals, will be predicated on whether Chen Lei and Lee Hsueh-lin are healthy. The good news is that they’re both back in the lineup after missing extended time with injuries; the bad news is that they haven’t really gotten an in-game run in a while, especially Lee, who, before coming back in Round 33 against Shanghai – the penultimate round of regular season games – had not played since December 9.

It boils down to this, though: Guangsha is bummed about Chandler, and Beijing is amped on making a finals run. Quack, quack.

Prediction: Beijing in 4

#3 Shanxi Zhongyu Brave Dragons (20-12) vs. #6 Shanghai Dongfang Sharks (18-14)

Regular Season Series:

(12/16) Shanxi – 90 @ Shanghai – 92
(2/3) Shanghai – 108 @ Shanxi – 119

Playoff Series Schedule:
Wednesday, 8 pm, @ Shanghai
Friday (2/24), 7:30 pm, @ Shanxi
Sunday (2/26), 7:30 pm, @ Shanxi
(2/29), 7:30 pm, @ Shanghai (if necessary)
(3/2), 7:30 pm, @ Shanxi (if necessary)

Jim Yardley just expertly shared with the rest of the world in his book, Brave Dragons, what the rest of the CBA has known for quite some time: the Shanxi Zhongyu Brave Dragons are a flipping mess of a team.

Run by an owner who can switch from head coach to assistant coach to video coordinator to sports psychologist on a whim – or just hold all those titles at once – the Brave Dragons have gone through coaches, general managers, translators and players of all nationalities at an alarming rate over the years as “Boss Wang” continues his search for people who will give him the instant results he craves. Not surprisingly, as success in basketball usually comes from a gradual building process that nurtures familiarity and chemistry, Shanxi had never made the playoffs since their inception in 2006.

Which is why this year is so special: The Brave Dragons are finally in. How’d they do it? Boss Wang reportedly stopped meddling (as much – he definitely still meddles), and he stopped trying to bring in big-name NBA players who may come with NBA talent but also bring their NBA requirements, which the coal city of Taiyuan is largely incapable of fulfilling.

Charles Gaines

Wang took the safe bet this summer by bringing in Marcus Williams and Charles Gaines, two players who have played inChina before and have had no problem adjusting to the culture while accumulating monster stats. The two have developed into the best and most dependable foreign duo in the league. Gaines, who’s been putting up huge numbers ever since he played for Xinjiang two years ago, enjoyed another fantastic season, averaging 29.2 points and 13.1 rebounds on 64.1% shooting. Williams, who turned around Zhejiang Chouzhou’s season last year after coming in midseason after the Mike James experiment blew up, hasn’t missed a beat in his second season, averaging 32 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.5 steals.

The problem for Shanxi, though: Nobody else can consistently score and nobody defends. Yeah, Lu Xiaoming can get out in transition and probe around for dump-offs and kick-outs, and Duan Jiangpeng has had some big nights on the offensive end, but this team starts and ends with their foreigners.

Shanxi’s obvious reliance on their foreign studs is in stark contrast to Shanghai. Allowing just 89.6 points per game, Shanghai boasts the stingiest defense in the league. First-year head-coach Dan Pannagio, following in the defensive footsteps of China national team coach Bob Donewald Jr. from two years prior, has stressed solid team D while also installing the equal-opportunity triangle offense. The jury’s still out on the effectiveness of the triangle — the Sharks score a league-low 91.1 points a game – partly because they’ve dealt with injuries. Ryan Forehan-Kelly, who played the triangle under Panaggio in the D-League, was enjoying a great season, possibly even a NiuBBall MVP-type season, in his familiar offensive surroundings before rupturing his Achilles in late December.

His replacement, Marcus Landry, and especially Mike Harris, who stepped up with some big games down the stretch, have both helped the team move forward. But several Chinese players do their part here. The Sharks go nine, occasionally 10 deep, led most notably by their two national team players, veteran point guard Liu Wei and the young, ever-improving 7-3 center “Max” Zhang Zhaoxu. Liu Ziqiu is one of the better Chinese perimeter defenders in the league and Meng Lingyuan provides a lefty herky-jerky change of pace off the bench.

Throw in the fact that Shanghai’s very-much-on-the-same-page American coaching staff will have the freedom to make whatever adjustments they deem necessary, while Shanxi’s half-American, half-Chinese staff may or may not depending on how Boss Wang is feeling, and you’ve got the makings of a very intriguing and competitive first-round series. But with two NiuBBall All-CBA first-teamers in Gaines and Williams and an important home-court advantage that will challenge the road-weary Sharks (4-12 on the road this year), we’re giving the nod to the Brave Dragons.

Prediction: Shanxi in 5

#4 Xinjiang Guanghui Flying Tigers (19-13) vs. #5 DongGuan New Century Leopards (19-13)

Regular Season Series:
(12/25) Xinjiang – 90 @ DongGuan – 97
(2/12) DongGuan – 89 @ Xinjiang – 97

Playoff Series Schedule:
Wednesday, 7:30 pm, @ DongGuan
Friday (2/24), 7:30 pm, @ Xinjiang
Sunday (2/26), 8 pm, @ Xinjiang
(2/29), 7:30 pm, @ DongGuan (if necessary)
(3/2), 7:30 pm, @ Xinjiang (if necessary)

No team has gone through more upheaval, more turmoil and more disappointment this season than the Xinjiang Flying Tigers. Once drooling over the prospect of having Kenyon Martin, Quincy Douby, Tang Zhengdong and Mengke Bateer all coached up by American Bob Donewald Jr., the team is now devoid of all three of those Americans (Douby broke his wrist in preseason, Donewald was fired 11 games and Martin left shortly after with 12 games under his belt).

They’re also without Douby’s replacement, Australian national team point guard Patty Mills, who was released controversially midseason after tearing his hamstring against Guangdong on December 23. And now they’re going to be missing the player who filled Martin’s vacancy, Gani Lawal, who is reportedly being replaced by Ike Diogu.

Not coming as a shock, the team is likewise devoid of any real shot at the title, or of extending its three-year runner-up status.

They will, however, destroy DongGuan. Because despite all the drama, Xinjiang is still a very good team, a much better one than its first-round opponent. Bateer and Tang still get it done on the inside, which is bad news for DongGuan’s light front line. On the wings, Xu Guochong is lights out from downtown, and Xirelijiang is as good a two-way guard as this league has. And that’s just domestic players. Tim Pickett has done very well coming to the team on short notice, and before being released, Lawal was a rugged blue-collar rebounder.

The team’s make-up will change with Diogu, but even if he’s a bit sluggish, Xinjiang will still win this series. Though DongGuan head coach Brian Goorjian, for the second year in a row, has done a masterful job at the helm, leading his team to a No. 5 seed after starting the year 0-4, the Leopards don’t hold any discernable advantage in any key category. Xinjiang is bigger and better than DongGuan’s big-man rotation of Shavlik Randolph, Zhang Kai and Sun Tonglin, and should dominate the offensive glass. On the perimeter, nobody will be able to handle Pickett.

The one mystery, maybe the only one of this series, is how Diogu, who’s been sitting at home all winter, will play in the postseason pressure cooker. Have we mentioned it’s his first time in China? It’s asking a lot for him to carry them to playoff glory. Lucky for him, he can use this series to find his rhythm without the result ever being in jeopardy.

Prediction: Xinjiang in 3

Jon Pastuszek writes about all things Chinese hoops at NiuBBall.com. His work includes a New York Times piece about Quincy Douby and the Xinjiang Flying Tigers’ playoff run last season.